February 10, 2023 3:00 a.m.

Oregon’s total employment is projected to grow by 265,000 jobs, or 13 percent, between 2021 and 2031, according to new projections from the Oregon Employment Department.

Projections Economist Sarah Cunningham said employment growth reflects recovery from low employment levels in 2021 due to the pandemic recession alongside structural growth. Cunningham said many additional job openings are expected due to the need to replace workers who leave their occupations.

OED said in 2021, there were 2,061,200 jobs in Oregon. The projected 13 percent increase in employment between 2021 and 2031 includes private-sector gains of 240,200 jobs, growth of 20,300 jobs in government, and an additional 4,400 self-employed Oregonians.

Cunningham said beyond gains associated with the economic recovery from the pandemic recession and anticipated economic growth, another 2,234,900 job openings will be created by 2031 to replace workers who retire, leave the labor force for other reasons, or make an occupational change. Together, the number of job openings due to economic recovery, job growth and replacements will total nearly 2.5 million.

All sectors in Oregon are expected to add jobs by 2031. The leisure and hospitality sector is projected to increase the fastest and add the largest number of jobs. A projected 34 percent level of growth, or 60,100 more jobs, in leisure and hospitality is mainly driven by the recovery from the pandemic, as restaurants, hotels and arts, cultural, and recreational establishments have seen increased demand as in-person and recreational activities resume.

OED said the private health care and social assistance sector is projected to add the second-largest number of jobs over the next 10 years at 45,900, growing at a rate of 17 percent. Growth in private health care and social assistance is attributed to the aging of the state’s population, longer life expectancies and long-term population growth.

All areas of Oregon expect to see job opportunities due to both economic recovery and growth, and to replace workers leaving the labor force in the coming years. The two areas projected to grow faster than the state rate are central Oregon and the Portland- tri-county area, which are expected to go up by 15 percent. The eastern six counties and southwestern Oregon are projected to grow the slowest at 5 percent and 9 percent respectively.

More information on 2021-2031 industry and occupational projections for Oregon and sub-state areas can be found at www.qualityinfo.org/projections.