April 13, 2020 3:25 a.m.
New projections from health researchers estimate that Oregon’s “aggressive” social distancing measures may have prevented as many as 18,000 cases of COVID-19 and 500 hospitalizations, according to the Oregon Health Authority.
An OHA release said the restrictions must be maintained into May to prevent new cases from rising above current daily levels of coronavirus cases. It said that by following Governor Brown’s stay at home executive orders, Oregonians are preventing a surge in new infections that could overwhelm hospital beds if left unchecked. The release said researchers believe that the state’s health care systems would likely have been overwhelmed by late April in the absence of the sustained interventions to keep the number of infections under control.
The release said the latest model is based on the latest actual COVID-19 infection rate, hospitalization and death data.
Under current social distancing conditions, the total cumulative infections with COVID-19 in Oregon on May 18th would be fewer than 20,000. However, if the state were to return to moderate social distancing like reopening non-essential businesses while keeping schools closed, the number of new infections would quickly climb to more than 60,000 according to OHA.
The release said active infections would stay at currently projected levels of more than 2,000 cases per day through mid-May and then begin to slowly subside, if the state maintains current social distancing measures, However if the state were to return to moderate social distancing, the number of active infections each day would spike to more than 17,000 according to OHA.
Dr. Dean Sidelinger, state health officer for OHA said staying at home and maintaining physical distancing is difficult and has had serious economic impacts that have affected many people, but the data continues to show that Oregonians are saving lives by staying home.